Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Under |
| Money | RAD +154 WIN -185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIN +2 | 158 | Lost |
| Massey | WIN -5.4 (+3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.1 (-9.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIN -3.2 (+1.2) | 158.6 (-0.6) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIN -4.3 (+2.3) | 156.3 (+1.7) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -4.2 (+2.2) | 158.0 (+0.0) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIN -4.6 (+2.6) | 159.7 (-1.7) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 21, 2026 | WIN 76 – 75 RAD |
| Feb 12, 2025 | WIN 78 – 74 RAD |
| Jan 4, 2025 | RAD 87 – 67 WIN |
| Feb 16, 2024 | WIN 85 – 69 RAD |
| Jan 13, 2024 | WIN 92 – 88 RAD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RAD | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 13-3 |
| Home | 12-5 | 13-1 |
| Away | 4-8 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.9 | 81.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.8 | 77.7 |
| Massey | -5.5 (#253) | 2.9 (#129) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.98 (#254) | 0.41 (#129) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.41 (#266) | 0.31 (#138) |
| RPI | 0.452 (#261) | 0.552 (#79) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RAD | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 13.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 34.9% |
| FT Rate | 30.7% | 31.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.3% | 28.3% |
Game Analysis
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