Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | WIN -188 RAD +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIN +4 | 180 | Won |
| Massey | WIN -6.2 (-2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.6 (+40.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIN -4.0 (-0.0) | 140.2 (+39.8) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIN -4.3 (-0.3) | 138.8 (+41.2) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -4.6 (-0.6) | 138.4 (+41.6) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIN -4.1 (-0.1) | 139.9 (+40.1) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | WIN 80 – 78 RAD |
| Jan 21, 2026 | WIN 76 – 75 RAD |
| Feb 12, 2025 | WIN 78 – 74 RAD |
| Jan 4, 2025 | RAD 87 – 67 WIN |
| Feb 16, 2024 | WIN 85 – 69 RAD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIN | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 5-11 |
| Home | 9-5 | 8-5 |
| Away | 6-9 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 4-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.0 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 72.9 |
| Massey | 1.9 (#135) | -0.3 (#172) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.58 (#125) | 0.84 (#103) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.77 (#124) | 1.09 (#107) |
| RPI | 0.529 (#124) | 0.543 (#104) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIN | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 37.1% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 66.1% | 66.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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