Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | WIN -155 RAD +135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIN +4 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | WIN -3.4 (+0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.5 (-3.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIN -1.9 (+2.1) | 152.1 (-0.1) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIN -1.8 (+2.2) | 149.5 (+2.5) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIN -2.1 (+1.9) | 151.0 (+1.0) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -2.2 (+1.8) | 153.5 (-1.5) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | WIN 80 – 78 RAD |
| Jan 21, 2026 | WIN 76 – 75 RAD |
| Jan 4, 2025 | RAD 87 – 67 WIN |
| Feb 16, 2024 | WIN 85 – 69 RAD |
| Jan 13, 2024 | WIN 92 – 88 RAD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIN | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 9-7 |
| Home | 16-2 | 10-3 |
| Away | 5-8 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.3 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.8 | 71.0 |
| Massey | -1.4 (#184) | -1.7 (#192) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.15 (#161) | 0.38 (#142) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.11 (#162) | 0.48 (#140) |
| RPI | 0.522 (#139) | 0.524 (#134) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIN | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 34.7% |
| FT Rate | 33.7% | 30.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.5% | 28.9% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.