Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 165.5 Under |
| Money | WIN -520 RAD +390 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIN +1 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | WIN -13.7 (-12.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.2 (-16.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIN -10.8 (-9.8) | 160.3 (-9.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIN -11.4 (-10.4) | 155.6 (-4.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -11.8 (-10.8) | 156.9 (-5.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIN -11.9 (-10.9) | 158.2 (-7.2) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | WIN 80 – 78 RAD |
| Feb 12, 2025 | WIN 78 – 74 RAD |
| Jan 4, 2025 | RAD 87 – 67 WIN |
| Feb 16, 2024 | WIN 85 – 69 RAD |
| Jan 13, 2024 | WIN 92 – 88 RAD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIN | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 13-3 | 9-7 |
| Home | 13-1 | 12-5 |
| Away | 7-9 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.5 | 79.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.7 | 80.8 |
| Massey | 3.1 (#124) | -7.4 (#274) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.22 (#148) | -1.39 (#291) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.17 (#153) | -2.00 (#297) |
| RPI | 0.539 (#98) | 0.426 (#301) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIN | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 39.5 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 35.1% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 30.3% | 30.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 66.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 31.1% |
Game Analysis
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