Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | RAD +105 WIN -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RAD +20 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | RAD -2.2 (+17.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.7 (+2.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RAD -1.8 (+18.2) | 149.4 (+4.6) | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RAD -1.8 (+18.2) | 147.9 (+6.1) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RAD -2.8 (+17.2) | 148.2 (+5.8) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | RAD -1.1 (+18.9) | 148.4 (+5.6) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | WIN 80 – 78 RAD |
| Jan 21, 2026 | WIN 76 – 75 RAD |
| Feb 12, 2025 | WIN 78 – 74 RAD |
| Feb 16, 2024 | WIN 85 – 69 RAD |
| Jan 13, 2024 | WIN 92 – 88 RAD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RAD | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 11-5 |
| Home | 10-3 | 16-2 |
| Away | 7-9 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 82.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 79.8 |
| Massey | -3.0 (#216) | -1.1 (#178) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.71 (#115) | 0.17 (#151) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.79 (#120) | 0.13 (#151) |
| RPI | 0.540 (#99) | 0.505 (#163) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RAD | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 28.5% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 34.5% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 29.0% | 34.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.2% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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