Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | RAD +110 WIN -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIN +16 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | WIN -0.3 (-15.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.8 (+11.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIN -0.1 (-15.9) | 143.2 (+10.8) | 49% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RAD -0.4 (-16.4) | 142.0 (+12.0) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RAD -0.3 (-16.3) | 142.1 (+11.9) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -0.3 (-15.7) | 142.9 (+11.1) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | WIN 80 – 78 RAD |
| Jan 21, 2026 | WIN 76 – 75 RAD |
| Feb 12, 2025 | WIN 78 – 74 RAD |
| Jan 4, 2025 | RAD 87 – 67 WIN |
| Jan 13, 2024 | WIN 92 – 88 RAD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RAD | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 8-8 |
| Home | 8-5 | 9-5 |
| Away | 4-12 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 4-0 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 75.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.9 | 73.5 |
| Massey | -2.8 (#216) | 0.9 (#151) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.48 (#217) | -0.12 (#180) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.48 (#215) | -0.05 (#173) |
| RPI | 0.484 (#202) | 0.497 (#172) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RAD | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 36.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 66.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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