And with the way you look I understand you're not impressed. "Alison" - Elvis Costello
New Mexico Lobos
66 86
FINAL Conference
Utah State Aggies
Mountain West Conference · The Pit · February 5, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread UNM -1.5 Away covered
O/U 156.5 Under
Money UNM -130 / USU +110
Model Predictions
Spread Total UNM win
Actual USU +20 152 Lost
Massey UNM -0.2 (-20.2)
Massey Totals 153.9 (-1.9)
Bradley-Terry 61%
Weighted B-T 67%
Efficiency Plus ML UNM -2.7 (-22.7) 145.8 (+6.2) 69%
Baseline Tuned ML UNM -2.6 (-22.6) 148.4 (+3.6) 65%
Baseline ML UNM -2.6 (-22.6) 149.9 (+2.1) 71%
Baseline Plus ML UNM -2.7 (-22.7) 147.9 (+4.1) 67%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 7, 2026 USU 9490 UNM
Feb 16, 2025 UNM 8279 USU
Feb 2, 2025 UNM 8263 USU
Mar 10, 2024 USU 8785 UNM
Jan 17, 2024 UNM 9986 USU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UNM USU
Overall 26-11 29-7
Conference 13-7 15-5
Home 17-3 14-1
Away 7-5 7-5
Neutral 2-3 8-1
Last 5 4-1 3-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 80.8 81.4
Avg Pts Against 71.6 71.2
Massey 13.1 (#43) 15.9 (#30)
Bradley-Terry 2.40 (#38) 2.45 (#35)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.05 (#39) 2.90 (#43)
RPI 0.609 (#32) 0.622 (#25)
Shooting & Four Factors UNM USU
FG% 45.9% 50.3%
3PT% 35.1% 34.7%
REB / G 36.4 35.7
OREB / G 10.2 11.9
AST / TO 1.33 1.56
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 53.6% 57.0%
TOV% 15.4% 16.3%
ORB% 29.5% 36.4%
FT Rate 26.6% 26.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.9% 48.5%
Opp TOV% 20.0% 21.8%
DRB% 72.1% 68.4%
Opp FT Rate 23.4% 28.3%

Game Analysis

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