Betting Lines
| Spread | UNM -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | UNM -130 USU +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +20 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | UNM -0.2 (-20.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.9 (-1.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNM -2.7 (-22.7) | 147.9 (+4.1) | 67% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNM -2.7 (-22.7) | 145.8 (+6.2) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNM -2.6 (-22.6) | 148.4 (+3.6) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNM -2.6 (-22.6) | 149.9 (+2.1) | 71% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | USU 94 – 90 UNM |
| Feb 16, 2025 | UNM 82 – 79 USU |
| Feb 2, 2025 | UNM 82 – 63 USU |
| Mar 10, 2024 | USU 87 – 85 UNM |
| Jan 17, 2024 | UNM 99 – 86 USU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNM | USU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-11 | 29-7 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 15-5 |
| Home | 17-3 | 14-1 |
| Away | 7-5 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 8-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.8 | 81.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 71.2 |
| Massey | 13.1 (#43) | 15.9 (#30) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.40 (#38) | 2.45 (#35) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.05 (#39) | 2.90 (#43) |
| RPI | 0.609 (#32) | 0.622 (#25) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNM | USU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 50.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 57.0% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 36.4% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 21.8% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 28.3% |
Game Analysis
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