Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Over |
| Money | USU -200 UNM +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +2 | 172 | Won |
| Massey | USU -1.1 (+0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.5 (+11.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -2.6 (-0.6) | 156.8 (+15.2) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -2.6 (-0.6) | 154.6 (+17.4) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -3.1 (-1.1) | 156.2 (+15.8) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -2.7 (-0.7) | 155.7 (+16.3) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | USU 94 – 90 UNM |
| Feb 5, 2026 | USU 86 – 66 UNM |
| Feb 16, 2025 | UNM 82 – 79 USU |
| Feb 2, 2025 | UNM 82 – 63 USU |
| Jan 17, 2024 | UNM 99 – 86 USU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 26-10 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 10-8 |
| Home | 14-1 | 13-3 |
| Away | 8-4 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 8-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 80.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 71.2 |
| Massey | 11.5 (#45) | 13.6 (#22) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.69 (#9) | 2.05 (#34) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.80 (#24) | 2.48 (#35) |
| RPI | 0.628 (#6) | 0.597 (#24) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.1% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 38.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 14.0% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 33.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 75.4% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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