I'm so tired of being lonely, I still have some love to give. "Handle With Care" - The Travelling WIlburys
Utah State Aggies
87 85
FINAL Conference
New Mexico Lobos
Mountain West Conference · Dee Glen Smith Spectrum · March 10, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread USU -3.5 Away covered
O/U 160.5 Over
Money USU -200 / UNM +155
Model Predictions
Spread Total USU win
Actual USU +2 172 Won
Massey USU -1.1 (+0.9)
Massey Totals 160.5 (+11.5)
Bradley-Terry 77%
Weighted B-T 73%
Efficiency Plus ML USU -2.6 (-0.6) 154.6 (+17.4) 67%
Baseline Tuned ML USU -3.1 (-1.1) 156.2 (+15.8) 66%
Baseline ML USU -2.7 (-0.7) 155.7 (+16.3) 68%
Baseline Plus ML USU -2.6 (-0.6) 156.8 (+15.2) 66%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 7, 2026 USU 9490 UNM
Feb 5, 2026 USU 8666 UNM
Feb 16, 2025 UNM 8279 USU
Feb 2, 2025 UNM 8263 USU
Jan 17, 2024 UNM 9986 USU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings USU UNM
Overall 28-7 26-10
Conference 14-4 10-8
Home 14-1 13-3
Away 8-4 5-6
Neutral 6-2 8-1
Last 5 4-1 2-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 78.9 80.8
Avg Pts Against 72.6 71.2
Massey 11.5 (#45) 13.6 (#22)
Bradley-Terry 2.69 (#9) 2.05 (#34)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.80 (#24) 2.48 (#35)
RPI 0.628 (#6) 0.597 (#24)
Shooting & Four Factors USU UNM
FG% 49.1% 45.8%
3PT% 32.6% 33.6%
REB / G 36.1 38.9
OREB / G 9.5 12.6
AST / TO 1.43 1.42
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 54.5% 50.9%
TOV% 16.0% 14.0%
ORB% 28.6% 33.2%
FT Rate 27.3% 24.3%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.1% 48.8%
Opp TOV% 16.6% 19.8%
DRB% 75.4% 73.3%
Opp FT Rate 21.9% 25.5%

Game Analysis

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