Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | USU -305 UNM +245 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +4 | 184 | Won |
| Massey | USU -6.2 (-2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.6 (+28.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -5.7 (-1.7) | 152.0 (+32.0) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -6.4 (-2.4) | 149.5 (+34.5) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -5.8 (-1.8) | 150.9 (+33.1) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -5.2 (-1.2) | 152.2 (+31.8) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | USU 86 – 66 UNM |
| Feb 16, 2025 | UNM 82 – 79 USU |
| Feb 2, 2025 | UNM 82 – 63 USU |
| Mar 10, 2024 | USU 87 – 85 UNM |
| Jan 17, 2024 | UNM 99 – 86 USU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-7 | 26-11 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 13-7 |
| Home | 14-1 | 17-3 |
| Away | 7-5 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 8-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 80.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 71.6 |
| Massey | 14.8 (#34) | 11.5 (#49) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.30 (#38) | 1.86 (#54) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.67 (#45) | 2.38 (#52) |
| RPI | 0.615 (#23) | 0.575 (#52) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.6% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.62 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.9% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.9% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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