Betting Lines
| Spread | UNM -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | UNM -250 USU +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNM +13 | 185 | Won |
| Massey | UNM -4.2 (+8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.1 (+28.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNM -3.2 (+9.8) | 149.7 (+35.3) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNM -3.0 (+10.0) | 150.7 (+34.3) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNM -3.5 (+9.5) | 151.8 (+33.2) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNM -3.5 (+9.5) | 153.0 (+32.0) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | USU 94 – 90 UNM |
| Feb 5, 2026 | USU 86 – 66 UNM |
| Feb 16, 2025 | UNM 82 – 79 USU |
| Feb 2, 2025 | UNM 82 – 63 USU |
| Mar 10, 2024 | USU 87 – 85 UNM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNM | USU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-10 | 28-7 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 14-4 |
| Home | 13-3 | 14-1 |
| Away | 5-6 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 8-1 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.8 | 78.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 13.3 (#26) | 13.0 (#29) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.08 (#39) | 3.25 (#5) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.48 (#42) | 3.54 (#11) |
| RPI | 0.622 (#19) | 0.666 (#4) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNM | USU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 49.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 39.3 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 1.51 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 27.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.8% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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