And then my good friend Shaggy says "Come spend some time, family" "44/876" -- Shaggy & Sting
New Mexico Lobos
82 79
FINAL Conference
Utah State Aggies
Mountain West Conference · The Pit · February 16, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread UNM -5.5 Away covered
O/U 158.5 Over
Money UNM -220 / USU +175
Model Predictions
Spread Total UNM win
Actual UNM +3 161 Won
Massey UNM -4.5 (-1.5)
Massey Totals 161.6 (-0.6)
Bradley-Terry 58%
Weighted B-T 73%
Efficiency Plus ML UNM -5.3 (-2.3) 151.2 (+9.8) 79%
Baseline Tuned ML UNM -6.2 (-3.2) 155.3 (+5.7) 74%
Baseline ML UNM -5.4 (-2.4) 155.7 (+5.3) 77%
Baseline Plus ML UNM -5.6 (-2.6) 154.3 (+6.7) 77%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 7, 2026 USU 9490 UNM
Feb 5, 2026 USU 8666 UNM
Feb 2, 2025 UNM 8263 USU
Mar 10, 2024 USU 8785 UNM
Jan 17, 2024 UNM 9986 USU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UNM USU
Overall 27-8 26-8
Conference 17-3 15-5
Home 15-1 15-2
Away 7-4 7-4
Neutral 5-3 4-2
Last 5 5-0 4-1
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 79.3 78.8
Avg Pts Against 70.6 70.5
Massey 13.4 (#36) 12.0 (#47)
Bradley-Terry 2.64 (#31) 2.87 (#17)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.80 (#18) 3.46 (#26)
RPI 0.615 (#23) 0.621 (#19)
Shooting & Four Factors UNM USU
FG% 45.6% 49.1%
3PT% 34.6% 35.1%
REB / G 40.6 34.9
OREB / G 12.4 11.2
AST / TO 1.30 1.63
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.2% 56.3%
TOV% 15.6% 16.2%
ORB% 31.6% 33.8%
FT Rate 25.6% 26.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 48.5% 51.5%
Opp TOV% 20.3% 20.7%
DRB% 74.5% 70.3%
Opp FT Rate 22.4% 23.4%

Game Analysis

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