Betting Lines
| Spread | UNM -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | UNM -220 USU +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNM +3 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | UNM -4.5 (-1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.6 (-0.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNM -5.6 (-2.6) | 154.3 (+6.7) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNM -5.3 (-2.3) | 151.2 (+9.8) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNM -6.2 (-3.2) | 155.3 (+5.7) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNM -5.4 (-2.4) | 155.7 (+5.3) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | USU 94 – 90 UNM |
| Feb 5, 2026 | USU 86 – 66 UNM |
| Feb 2, 2025 | UNM 82 – 63 USU |
| Mar 10, 2024 | USU 87 – 85 UNM |
| Jan 17, 2024 | UNM 99 – 86 USU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNM | USU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 15-5 |
| Home | 15-1 | 15-2 |
| Away | 7-4 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.3 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 13.4 (#36) | 12.0 (#47) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.64 (#31) | 2.87 (#17) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.80 (#18) | 3.46 (#26) |
| RPI | 0.615 (#23) | 0.621 (#19) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNM | USU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 49.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 40.6 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 56.3% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 33.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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