Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Under |
| Money | USU -175 UNM +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNM +19 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | USU -5.1 (-24.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.5 (-17.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -5.0 (-24.0) | 156.7 (-11.7) | 71% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -6.3 (-25.3) | 156.1 (-11.1) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -6.2 (-25.2) | 155.5 (-10.5) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USU -5.9 (-24.9) | 155.3 (-10.3) | 72% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | USU 94 – 90 UNM |
| Feb 5, 2026 | USU 86 – 66 UNM |
| Feb 16, 2025 | UNM 82 – 79 USU |
| Mar 10, 2024 | USU 87 – 85 UNM |
| Jan 17, 2024 | UNM 99 – 86 USU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 17-3 |
| Home | 15-2 | 15-1 |
| Away | 7-4 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 79.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 70.6 |
| Massey | 13.5 (#37) | 11.6 (#51) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.11 (#16) | 2.31 (#40) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.99 (#16) | 3.26 (#34) |
| RPI | 0.623 (#19) | 0.614 (#27) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.0% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 40.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.63 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.6% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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