Betting Lines
| Spread | GW -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | JOES +100 GW -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +3 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | GW -6.3 (+9.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.6 (-7.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GW -2.1 (+5.1) | 148.4 (+0.6) | 43% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GW -1.7 (+4.7) | 148.6 (+0.4) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GW -2.5 (+5.5) | 147.1 (+1.9) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GW -2.7 (+5.7) | 148.4 (+0.6) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2025 | JOES 79 – 68 GW |
| Feb 22, 2024 | JOES 79 – 75 GW |
| Mar 8, 2023 | JOES 87 – 76 GW |
| Feb 11, 2023 | JOES 81 – 69 GW |
| Jan 26, 2023 | GW 92 – 91 JOES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | GW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 8-10 |
| Home | 13-3 | 12-4 |
| Away | 8-8 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 80.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 75.2 |
| Massey | -0.3 (#170) | 9.0 (#67) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.50 (#118) | 0.27 (#138) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#131) | 0.47 (#127) |
| RPI | 0.529 (#117) | 0.528 (#118) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | GW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 55.4% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 34.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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