Betting Lines
| Spread | JOES -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | GW +115 JOES -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +11 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | JOES -0.4 (-10.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.6 (+4.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GW -1.0 (-12.0) | 137.9 (+9.1) | 57% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GW -0.4 (-11.4) | 137.8 (+9.2) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GW -1.1 (-12.1) | 136.2 (+10.8) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GW -1.0 (-12.0) | 136.0 (+11.0) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | JOES 76 – 73 GW |
| Feb 22, 2024 | JOES 79 – 75 GW |
| Mar 8, 2023 | JOES 87 – 76 GW |
| Feb 11, 2023 | JOES 81 – 69 GW |
| Jan 26, 2023 | GW 92 – 91 JOES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GW | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 11-7 |
| Home | 13-4 | 13-5 |
| Away | 5-6 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 75.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 68.6 |
| Massey | 2.9 (#116) | 6.5 (#85) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.54 (#125) | 0.62 (#119) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.76 (#116) | 0.83 (#112) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#138) | 0.538 (#105) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GW | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 29.0% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 46.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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