All my failings exposed, gets a taste in my mouth as desperation takes hold "Love Will Tear Us Apart" - Joy Division
Atlantic 10 Conference · Charles E. Smith Center · February 20, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread JOES -2.5 Away covered
O/U 140.5 Over
Money GW +115 / JOES -135
Model Predictions
Spread Total GW win
Actual JOES +11 147 Lost
Massey JOES -0.4 (-10.6)
Massey Totals 142.6 (+4.4)
Bradley-Terry 62%
Weighted B-T 64%
Efficiency Plus ML GW -0.4 (-11.4) 137.8 (+9.2) 57%
Baseline Tuned ML GW -1.1 (-12.1) 136.2 (+10.8) 56%
Baseline ML GW -1.0 (-12.0) 136.0 (+11.0) 54%
Baseline Plus ML GW -1.0 (-12.0) 137.9 (+9.1) 57%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 5, 2026 JOES 7673 GW
Feb 22, 2024 JOES 7975 GW
Mar 8, 2023 JOES 8776 GW
Feb 11, 2023 JOES 8169 GW
Jan 26, 2023 GW 9291 JOES

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings GW JOES
Overall 21-13 22-13
Conference 9-9 11-7
Home 13-4 13-5
Away 5-6 4-6
Neutral 3-3 5-2
Last 5 2-3 3-2
Streak L2 L2
Avg Pts For 72.3 75.1
Avg Pts Against 68.6 68.6
Massey 2.9 (#116) 6.5 (#85)
Bradley-Terry 0.54 (#125) 0.62 (#119)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.76 (#116) 0.83 (#112)
RPI 0.521 (#138) 0.538 (#105)
Shooting & Four Factors GW JOES
FG% 43.9% 44.1%
3PT% 30.3% 33.9%
REB / G 35.4 36.9
OREB / G 10.9 10.2
AST / TO 1.08 1.28
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.4% 51.8%
TOV% 18.4% 16.9%
ORB% 31.9% 29.5%
FT Rate 29.0% 22.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.4% 46.7%
Opp TOV% 19.7% 16.5%
DRB% 67.6% 73.7%
Opp FT Rate 20.1% 20.4%

Game Analysis

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