Betting Lines
| Spread | JOES -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Under |
| Money | JOES -1200 GW +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +4 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | JOES -10.8 (-6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.9 (-7.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JOES -8.9 (-4.9) | 158.5 (-4.5) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JOES -10.2 (-6.2) | 155.4 (-1.4) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JOES -10.6 (-6.6) | 156.0 (-2.0) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JOES -10.8 (-6.8) | 157.4 (-3.4) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | JOES 76 – 73 GW |
| Feb 20, 2025 | JOES 79 – 68 GW |
| Mar 8, 2023 | JOES 87 – 76 GW |
| Feb 11, 2023 | JOES 81 – 69 GW |
| Jan 26, 2023 | GW 92 – 91 JOES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | GW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 4-14 |
| Home | 14-3 | 12-6 |
| Away | 3-10 | 1-9 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.5 | 76.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 77.4 |
| Massey | 5.4 (#98) | -2.0 (#202) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.86 (#111) | 0.09 (#167) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.96 (#115) | -0.08 (#176) |
| RPI | 0.538 (#111) | 0.486 (#200) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | GW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 38.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 16.6% |
Game Analysis
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