Betting Lines
| Spread | GW -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | GW -163 JOES +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GW +1 | 183 | Won |
| Massey | GW -5.2 (-4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.8 (+29.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GW -3.1 (-2.1) | 150.2 (+32.8) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GW -4.0 (-3.0) | 150.8 (+32.2) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GW -3.9 (-2.9) | 151.0 (+32.0) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GW -4.6 (-3.6) | 150.7 (+32.3) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | JOES 76 – 73 GW |
| Feb 20, 2025 | JOES 79 – 68 GW |
| Feb 22, 2024 | JOES 79 – 75 GW |
| Mar 8, 2023 | JOES 87 – 76 GW |
| Feb 11, 2023 | JOES 81 – 69 GW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GW | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 8-10 |
| Home | 11-6 | 10-6 |
| Away | 5-6 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.0 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.3 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -0.1 (#170) | -1.7 (#207) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.14 (#188) | -0.49 (#224) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.11 (#187) | -0.64 (#221) |
| RPI | 0.487 (#204) | 0.480 (#213) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GW | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 25.2% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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