Betting Lines
| Spread | JOES -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | JOES -225 GW +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +12 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | JOES -5.1 (+6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.5 (-7.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JOES -4.3 (+7.7) | 156.0 (-6.0) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JOES -4.9 (+7.1) | 156.6 (-6.6) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JOES -4.8 (+7.2) | 157.8 (-7.8) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JOES -4.0 (+8.0) | 156.7 (-6.7) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | JOES 76 – 73 GW |
| Feb 20, 2025 | JOES 79 – 68 GW |
| Feb 22, 2024 | JOES 79 – 75 GW |
| Mar 8, 2023 | JOES 87 – 76 GW |
| Jan 26, 2023 | GW 92 – 91 JOES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | GW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 10-8 |
| Home | 10-6 | 11-6 |
| Away | 4-7 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 76.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 77.3 |
| Massey | -1.0 (#193) | -2.5 (#219) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.34 (#210) | -0.29 (#203) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.43 (#204) | -0.48 (#216) |
| RPI | 0.490 (#199) | 0.484 (#212) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | GW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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