Betting Lines
| Spread | GW -2.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | GW -130 JOES +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +11 | 163 | Lost |
| Massey | JOES -0.7 (-10.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.9 (+6.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JOES -0.6 (-10.4) | 155.0 (+8.0) | 49% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JOES -1.3 (-9.7) | 154.7 (+8.3) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JOES -0.1 (-10.9) | 155.2 (+7.8) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JOES -0.1 (-10.9) | 154.8 (+8.2) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | JOES 76 – 73 GW |
| Feb 20, 2025 | JOES 79 – 68 GW |
| Feb 22, 2024 | JOES 79 – 75 GW |
| Feb 11, 2023 | JOES 81 – 69 GW |
| Jan 26, 2023 | GW 92 – 91 JOES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GW | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 8-10 |
| Home | 11-6 | 10-6 |
| Away | 5-6 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.0 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.3 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#212) | -1.3 (#197) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.08 (#182) | -0.26 (#200) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.31 (#197) | -0.32 (#199) |
| RPI | 0.497 (#183) | 0.493 (#191) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GW | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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