Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | GAST +225 TROY -278 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GAST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +11 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | TROY -5.6 (-5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.5 (-15.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -3.6 (-7.4) | 145.3 (-8.3) | 32% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -4.3 (-6.7) | 148.8 (-11.8) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -4.0 (-7.0) | 149.2 (-12.2) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -4.0 (-7.0) | 146.5 (-9.5) | 34% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2024 | TROY 77 – 57 GAST |
| Feb 3, 2024 | TROY 78 – 74 GAST |
| Jan 13, 2023 | TROY 65 – 53 GAST |
| Feb 4, 2022 | TROY 67 – 63 GAST |
| Feb 20, 2021 | GAST 65 – 53 TROY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GAST | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 12-6 |
| Home | 7-7 | 10-3 |
| Away | 3-12 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.4 | 77.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -7.5 (#281) | 1.1 (#147) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.00 (#259) | 0.57 (#111) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.36 (#263) | 0.09 (#156) |
| RPI | 0.447 (#272) | 0.550 (#81) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GAST | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.2% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 37.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.5% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 29.2% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 66.2% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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