Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | GAST +138 TROY -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GAST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +12 | 118 | Lost |
| Massey | TROY -4.7 (-7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.2 (-11.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -4.1 (-7.9) | 130.1 (-12.1) | 31% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -3.5 (-8.5) | 131.3 (-13.3) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -4.9 (-7.1) | 130.6 (-12.6) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -3.9 (-8.1) | 130.3 (-12.3) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | TROY 74 – 63 GAST |
| Dec 21, 2024 | TROY 77 – 57 GAST |
| Feb 3, 2024 | TROY 78 – 74 GAST |
| Feb 4, 2022 | TROY 67 – 63 GAST |
| Feb 20, 2021 | GAST 65 – 53 TROY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GAST | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 11-7 |
| Home | 10-9 | 11-3 |
| Away | 0-11 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L8 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.1 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 67.8 |
| Massey | -4.4 (#250) | 4.4 (#102) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.98 (#272) | 0.61 (#120) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.06 (#261) | 0.95 (#106) |
| RPI | 0.432 (#297) | 0.534 (#120) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GAST | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.9% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 26.5% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.68 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.9% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 22.2% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 29.6% |
Game Analysis
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