Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | TROY -1000 GAST +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +20 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | TROY -15.2 (+4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.7 (-9.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -11.6 (+8.4) | 144.1 (-10.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -11.5 (+8.5) | 143.9 (-9.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -11.1 (+8.9) | 144.1 (-10.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -11.3 (+8.7) | 145.4 (-11.4) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | TROY 74 – 63 GAST |
| Feb 3, 2024 | TROY 78 – 74 GAST |
| Jan 13, 2023 | TROY 65 – 53 GAST |
| Feb 4, 2022 | TROY 67 – 63 GAST |
| Feb 20, 2021 | GAST 65 – 53 TROY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TROY | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 8-10 |
| Home | 11-4 | 9-6 |
| Away | 9-6 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 78.7 |
| Massey | 3.0 (#115) | -8.0 (#296) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.47 (#134) | -1.42 (#294) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.66 (#133) | -2.00 (#297) |
| RPI | 0.532 (#118) | 0.451 (#267) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TROY | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 29.6% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 23.6% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 38.0% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 13.4% |
| DRB% | 67.3% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.0% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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