Betting Lines
| Spread | GAST -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | GAST -450 TROY +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GAST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GAST +12 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | GAST -10.6 (+1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.8 (-24.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GAST -9.8 (+2.2) | 140.0 (-22.0) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GAST -8.9 (+3.1) | 138.9 (-20.9) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GAST -9.4 (+2.6) | 139.8 (-21.8) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GAST -9.6 (+2.4) | 140.2 (-22.2) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | TROY 74 – 63 GAST |
| Dec 21, 2024 | TROY 77 – 57 GAST |
| Feb 3, 2024 | TROY 78 – 74 GAST |
| Jan 13, 2023 | TROY 65 – 53 GAST |
| Feb 4, 2022 | TROY 67 – 63 GAST |
Game Analysis
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