Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | GAST +163 TROY -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GAST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +4 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | TROY -1.2 (-2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.0 (-2.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -1.6 (-2.4) | 148.2 (+3.8) | 45% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -3.4 (-0.6) | 149.4 (+2.6) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -0.8 (-3.2) | 152.4 (-0.4) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -1.5 (-2.5) | 149.1 (+2.9) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | TROY 74 – 63 GAST |
| Dec 21, 2024 | TROY 77 – 57 GAST |
| Jan 13, 2023 | TROY 65 – 53 GAST |
| Feb 4, 2022 | TROY 67 – 63 GAST |
| Feb 20, 2021 | GAST 65 – 53 TROY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GAST | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 13-5 |
| Home | 9-5 | 15-2 |
| Away | 5-11 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.4 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.4 | 72.6 |
| Massey | -3.1 (#222) | 1.6 (#142) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.95 (#267) | 0.10 (#162) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.09 (#264) | 0.43 (#149) |
| RPI | 0.444 (#280) | 0.519 (#139) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GAST | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 38.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 13.8% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 35.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 29.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.7% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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