Betting Lines
| Spread | GAST -7.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | GAST -300 TROY +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GAST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +4 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | GAST -0.7 (-4.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.9 (-10.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GAST -0.6 (-4.6) | 139.5 (-9.5) | 52% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GAST -1.9 (-5.9) | 137.4 (-7.4) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GAST -0.6 (-4.6) | 140.1 (-10.1) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GAST -0.2 (-4.2) | 139.6 (-9.6) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | TROY 74 – 63 GAST |
| Dec 21, 2024 | TROY 77 – 57 GAST |
| Feb 3, 2024 | TROY 78 – 74 GAST |
| Jan 13, 2023 | TROY 65 – 53 GAST |
| Feb 20, 2021 | GAST 65 – 53 TROY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GAST | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-11 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 9-5 | 10-6 |
| Home | 8-4 | 10-3 |
| Away | 6-6 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 67.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 67.1 |
| Massey | -3.4 (#231) | -0.8 (#183) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.61 (#223) | 0.56 (#129) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.47 (#207) | 0.82 (#123) |
| RPI | 0.461 (#242) | 0.512 (#157) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GAST | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.2% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.2% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.0% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.2% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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