Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | CCU +180 ARST -218 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +4 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | ARST -1.0 (-3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.3 (-20.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CCU -0.7 (-4.7) | 148.7 (-12.7) | 56% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -1.4 (-2.6) | 148.6 (-12.6) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CCU -1.0 (-5.0) | 146.9 (-10.9) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CCU -0.8 (-4.8) | 148.1 (-12.1) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2024 | ARST 97 – 67 CCU |
| Feb 29, 2024 | ARST 71 – 60 CCU |
| Feb 28, 2023 | ARST 86 – 69 CCU |
| Feb 4, 2023 | ARST 73 – 57 CCU |
| Feb 24, 2022 | CCU 74 – 69 ARST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CCU | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 11-7 |
| Home | 8-5 | 11-4 |
| Away | 10-7 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 81.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 78.0 |
| Massey | -5.0 (#243) | -1.0 (#180) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.10 (#183) | 0.21 (#143) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.50 (#207) | 0.25 (#143) |
| RPI | 0.504 (#169) | 0.540 (#95) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CCU | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 40.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 37.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 28.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.1% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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