Betting Lines
| Spread | CCU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | ARST +160 CCU -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +16 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | ARST -0.8 (+15.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.8 (-6.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CCU -0.6 (+16.6) | 139.6 (-9.6) | 45% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CCU -0.3 (+16.3) | 137.4 (-7.4) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CCU -0.2 (+16.2) | 139.0 (-9.0) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CCU -0.5 (+16.5) | 140.3 (-10.3) | 46% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | ARST 70 – 66 CCU |
| Dec 21, 2024 | ARST 97 – 67 CCU |
| Feb 29, 2024 | ARST 71 – 60 CCU |
| Feb 28, 2023 | ARST 86 – 69 CCU |
| Feb 24, 2022 | CCU 74 – 69 ARST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARST | CCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 5-13 |
| Home | 10-8 | 8-8 |
| Away | 2-11 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.7 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 77.3 |
| Massey | -8.7 (#319) | -6.0 (#278) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.60 (#312) | -0.68 (#247) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.09 (#319) | -1.13 (#270) |
| RPI | 0.406 (#335) | 0.474 (#233) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARST | CCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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