Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | CCU +350 ARST -450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +11 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | ARST -7.3 (-3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.3 (-29.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -6.7 (-4.3) | 156.1 (-25.1) | 24% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -6.4 (-4.6) | 155.2 (-24.2) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -7.0 (-4.0) | 154.7 (-23.7) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -6.4 (-4.6) | 156.4 (-25.4) | 25% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | ARST 70 – 66 CCU |
| Dec 21, 2024 | ARST 97 – 67 CCU |
| Feb 28, 2023 | ARST 86 – 69 CCU |
| Feb 4, 2023 | ARST 73 – 57 CCU |
| Feb 24, 2022 | CCU 74 – 69 ARST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CCU | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 20-17 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 11-7 |
| Home | 7-11 | 10-3 |
| Away | 1-9 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.4 | 77.0 |
| Massey | -9.5 (#317) | 1.1 (#148) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.90 (#329) | -0.01 (#170) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.16 (#322) | 0.20 (#157) |
| RPI | 0.400 (#338) | 0.503 (#165) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CCU | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 39.4 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.7% | 14.2% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 28.8% |
Game Analysis
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