Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | ARST -2500 CCU +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +30 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | ARST -12.1 (+17.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.4 (+28.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -11.5 (+18.5) | 140.8 (+23.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -10.1 (+19.9) | 137.3 (+26.7) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -9.7 (+20.3) | 138.0 (+26.0) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -10.1 (+19.9) | 137.6 (+26.4) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | ARST 70 – 66 CCU |
| Feb 29, 2024 | ARST 71 – 60 CCU |
| Feb 28, 2023 | ARST 86 – 69 CCU |
| Feb 4, 2023 | ARST 73 – 57 CCU |
| Feb 24, 2022 | CCU 74 – 69 ARST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARST | CCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-11 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 3-15 |
| Home | 14-2 | 6-8 |
| Away | 8-6 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.7 | 66.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 72.2 |
| Massey | 3.5 (#108) | -4.4 (#245) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.47 (#75) | -1.40 (#291) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.26 (#64) | -2.28 (#307) |
| RPI | 0.595 (#42) | 0.413 (#312) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARST | CCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.7% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.0% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 41.8 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.8 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 28.4% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 44.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 10.1% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.8% | 33.2% |
Game Analysis
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