Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CCU +5 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | ARST -0.7 (-5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.8 (+7.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -1.1 (-6.1) | 135.1 (+7.9) | 57% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -0.2 (-5.2) | 134.9 (+8.1) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -1.4 (-6.4) | 136.2 (+6.8) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -0.7 (-5.7) | 136.7 (+6.3) | 56% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | ARST 70 – 66 CCU |
| Dec 21, 2024 | ARST 97 – 67 CCU |
| Feb 29, 2024 | ARST 71 – 60 CCU |
| Feb 28, 2023 | ARST 86 – 69 CCU |
| Feb 4, 2023 | ARST 73 – 57 CCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARST | CCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-11 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 8-7 | 8-8 |
| Home | 11-3 | 13-7 |
| Away | 6-7 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.1 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 66.4 |
| Massey | -1.4 (#190) | 0.7 (#153) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.41 (#139) | -0.07 (#180) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.57 (#133) | 0.05 (#171) |
| RPI | 0.524 (#132) | 0.496 (#182) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARST | CCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 38.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 34.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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