Betting Lines
| Spread | APSU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | APSU -192 LIP +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APSU +11 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | APSU -3.9 (+7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.6 (+11.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APSU -2.3 (+8.7) | 150.9 (+12.1) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APSU -3.4 (+7.6) | 146.3 (+16.7) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APSU -3.4 (+7.6) | 148.1 (+14.9) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APSU -3.6 (+7.4) | 149.9 (+13.1) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 18, 2026 | LIP 82 – 78 APSU |
| Feb 25, 2025 | LIP 95 – 78 APSU |
| Jan 19, 2025 | LIP 88 – 60 APSU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | LIP 90 – 85 APSU |
| Jan 13, 2024 | LIP 91 – 77 APSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APSU | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-9 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 12-6 |
| Home | 12-1 | 13-1 |
| Away | 9-7 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.0 | 77.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 77.0 |
| Massey | 0.3 (#161) | -0.5 (#175) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.42 (#128) | 0.16 (#147) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.29 (#139) | 0.16 (#148) |
| RPI | 0.538 (#102) | 0.553 (#76) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APSU | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 1.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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