Betting Lines
| Spread | LIP -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | LIP -142 APSU +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LIP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIP +4 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | LIP -3.4 (+0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.5 (+11.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIP -2.3 (+1.7) | 148.1 (+11.9) | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIP -4.3 (-0.3) | 147.4 (+12.6) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIP -2.7 (+1.3) | 144.0 (+16.0) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LIP -2.4 (+1.6) | 145.4 (+14.6) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | APSU 87 – 76 LIP |
| Feb 25, 2025 | LIP 95 – 78 APSU |
| Jan 19, 2025 | LIP 88 – 60 APSU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | LIP 90 – 85 APSU |
| Jan 13, 2024 | LIP 91 – 77 APSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LIP | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 22-9 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 15-3 |
| Home | 13-1 | 12-1 |
| Away | 6-11 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.6 | 79.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 74.6 |
| Massey | 0.2 (#164) | 0.1 (#167) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.06 (#172) | 0.31 (#143) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.18 (#152) | 0.10 (#160) |
| RPI | 0.520 (#135) | 0.518 (#139) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LIP | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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