Betting Lines
| Spread | LIP -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | APSU +110 LIP -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIP +5 | 175 | Lost |
| Massey | APSU -0.5 (-5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.3 (+24.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIP -0.3 (-4.7) | 149.8 (+25.2) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APSU -1.6 (-6.6) | 151.9 (+23.1) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | APSU -1.4 (-6.4) | 152.3 (+22.7) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APSU -1.5 (-6.5) | 154.0 (+21.0) | 56% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | APSU 87 – 76 LIP |
| Jan 18, 2026 | LIP 82 – 78 APSU |
| Feb 25, 2025 | LIP 95 – 78 APSU |
| Jan 19, 2025 | LIP 88 – 60 APSU |
| Jan 13, 2024 | LIP 91 – 77 APSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APSU | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 11-5 |
| Home | 14-3 | 12-2 |
| Away | 4-12 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 80.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 77.3 |
| Massey | -3.2 (#224) | -0.4 (#169) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.26 (#198) | 0.14 (#157) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.46 (#212) | -0.01 (#171) |
| RPI | 0.503 (#170) | 0.513 (#150) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APSU | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 48.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 55.8% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 23.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 16.6% |
Game Analysis
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