Betting Lines
| Spread | LIP -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | LIP -275 APSU +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LIP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIP +14 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | LIP -8.5 (+5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.6 (+31.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIP -6.2 (+7.8) | 137.6 (+30.4) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIP -8.3 (+5.7) | 140.2 (+27.8) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIP -5.7 (+8.3) | 137.8 (+30.2) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LIP -5.7 (+8.3) | 137.4 (+30.6) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | APSU 87 – 76 LIP |
| Jan 18, 2026 | LIP 82 – 78 APSU |
| Feb 25, 2025 | LIP 95 – 78 APSU |
| Jan 19, 2025 | LIP 88 – 60 APSU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | LIP 90 – 85 APSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LIP | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 10-6 |
| Home | 12-2 | 14-3 |
| Away | 6-8 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.4 | 73.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.3 | 74.8 |
| Massey | 1.9 (#136) | -2.6 (#219) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.36 (#144) | -0.55 (#234) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.23 (#158) | -0.83 (#236) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#144) | 0.482 (#208) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LIP | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 45.5% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 24.6% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 17.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.1% | 28.1% |
Game Analysis
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