Betting Lines
| Spread | LIP -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | APSU +260 LIP -320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIP +17 | 173 | Lost |
| Massey | LIP -10.0 (-7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.1 (+35.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIP -7.2 (-9.8) | 143.9 (+29.1) | 24% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIP -7.6 (-9.4) | 143.3 (+29.7) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIP -6.7 (-10.3) | 142.1 (+30.9) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LIP -6.7 (-10.3) | 142.7 (+30.3) | 21% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | APSU 87 – 76 LIP |
| Jan 18, 2026 | LIP 82 – 78 APSU |
| Jan 19, 2025 | LIP 88 – 60 APSU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | LIP 90 – 85 APSU |
| Jan 13, 2024 | LIP 91 – 77 APSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APSU | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 14-4 |
| Home | 8-5 | 15-3 |
| Away | 4-13 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 68.2 |
| Massey | -6.8 (#275) | 6.3 (#87) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.84 (#247) | 0.52 (#127) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.12 (#254) | 0.88 (#108) |
| RPI | 0.474 (#230) | 0.534 (#112) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APSU | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.49 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 55.0% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 23.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 14.4% |
Game Analysis
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