Betting Lines
| Spread | LIP -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | LIP -2500 APSU +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LIP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIP +28 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | LIP -19.7 (+8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.6 (+19.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIP -16.2 (+11.8) | 142.9 (+5.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIP -16.5 (+11.5) | 137.4 (+10.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LIP -17.2 (+10.8) | 138.0 (+10.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIP -17.8 (+10.2) | 139.8 (+8.2) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | APSU 87 – 76 LIP |
| Jan 18, 2026 | LIP 82 – 78 APSU |
| Feb 25, 2025 | LIP 95 – 78 APSU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | LIP 90 – 85 APSU |
| Jan 13, 2024 | LIP 91 – 77 APSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LIP | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 8-10 |
| Home | 15-3 | 8-5 |
| Away | 10-6 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 75.8 |
| Massey | 8.1 (#71) | -8.0 (#296) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.83 (#104) | -0.98 (#262) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.51 (#80) | -1.29 (#263) |
| RPI | 0.535 (#116) | 0.460 (#247) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LIP | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 38.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 44.8% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 24.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.0% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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