Betting Lines
| Spread | L-MD -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | L-MD -142 LEH +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | L-MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | L-MD +5 | 173 | Won |
| Massey | L-MD -0.1 (+4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.6 (+20.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LEH -0.0 (+5.0) | 147.6 (+25.4) | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | L-MD -0.5 (+4.5) | 147.8 (+25.2) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | L-MD -0.1 (+4.9) | 144.5 (+28.5) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LEH -0.1 (+5.1) | 145.7 (+27.3) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 20, 2026 | LEH 88 – 81 L-MD |
| Mar 5, 2025 | L-MD 77 – 73 LEH |
| Jan 18, 2025 | L-MD 76 – 60 LEH |
| Jan 5, 2025 | L-MD 80 – 74 LEH |
| Feb 17, 2024 | LEH 75 – 70 L-MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | L-MD | LEH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 18-17 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 11-7 |
| Home | 8-6 | 13-4 |
| Away | 3-13 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.5 | 74.4 |
| Massey | -11.4 (#326) | -8.5 (#293) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.25 (#343) | -1.55 (#298) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.81 (#339) | -2.53 (#328) |
| RPI | 0.397 (#341) | 0.436 (#292) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | L-MD | LEH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 30.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 22.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.2% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 65.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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