I just keep on rolling along with the grace of the Lord above. "Heartbreaker" - Led Zeppelin
Big Ten Conference · State Farm Center · February 5, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread ILL -16.5 Home covered
O/U 149.5 Under
Money ILL -2400 / NU +1200
Model Predictions
Spread Total ILL win
Actual ILL +40 128 Won
Massey ILL -16.1 (+23.9)
Massey Totals 151.3 (-23.3)
Bradley-Terry 99%
Weighted B-T 100%
Efficiency Plus ML ILL -14.7 (+25.3) 146.8 (-18.8) 88%
Baseline Tuned ML ILL -13.5 (+26.5) 146.9 (-18.9) 88%
Baseline ML ILL -14.8 (+25.2) 148.3 (-20.3) 87%
Baseline Plus ML ILL -15.7 (+24.3) 147.2 (-19.2) 87%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 15, 2026 ILL 7968 NU
Jan 26, 2025 ILL 8374 NU
Dec 7, 2024 NU 7066 ILL
Jan 25, 2024 NU 9691 ILL
Jan 3, 2024 ILL 9666 NU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ILL NU
Overall 28-9 15-19
Conference 15-5 5-15
Home 14-3 9-8
Away 8-2 3-8
Neutral 6-4 3-3
Last 5 5-0 2-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 83.2 73.1
Avg Pts Against 68.8 72.0
Massey 22.7 (#6) 9.6 (#61)
Bradley-Terry 4.42 (#7) 0.68 (#103)
W. Bradley-Terry 5.88 (#5) 1.03 (#100)
RPI 0.648 (#9) 0.519 (#133)
Shooting & Four Factors ILL NU
FG% 46.8% 46.8%
3PT% 35.6% 32.0%
REB / G 41.2 33.0
OREB / G 13.3 9.6
AST / TO 1.54 2.11
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 55.8% 52.3%
TOV% 14.0% 12.7%
ORB% 39.6% 29.2%
FT Rate 27.4% 27.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.3% 49.1%
Opp TOV% 12.0% 16.3%
DRB% 73.3% 66.9%
Opp FT Rate 13.2% 26.1%

Game Analysis

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