Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | ILL -2400 NU +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +40 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -16.1 (+23.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.3 (-23.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -15.7 (+24.3) | 147.2 (-19.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -14.7 (+25.3) | 146.8 (-18.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -13.5 (+26.5) | 146.9 (-18.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -14.8 (+25.2) | 148.3 (-20.3) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 15, 2026 | ILL 79 – 68 NU |
| Jan 26, 2025 | ILL 83 – 74 NU |
| Dec 7, 2024 | NU 70 – 66 ILL |
| Jan 25, 2024 | NU 96 – 91 ILL |
| Jan 3, 2024 | ILL 96 – 66 NU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | NU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 15-19 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 5-15 |
| Home | 14-3 | 9-8 |
| Away | 8-2 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.2 | 73.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 72.0 |
| Massey | 22.7 (#6) | 9.6 (#61) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.42 (#7) | 0.68 (#103) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.88 (#5) | 1.03 (#100) |
| RPI | 0.648 (#9) | 0.519 (#133) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | NU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 41.2 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.54 | 2.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.8% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 14.0% | 12.7% |
| ORB% | 39.6% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.0% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.2% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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