Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | NU +140 ILL -165 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NU +4 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -9.1 (+13.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.7 (-8.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -6.3 (+10.3) | 144.7 (-8.7) | 35% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -5.4 (+9.4) | 144.8 (-8.8) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -5.5 (+9.5) | 140.0 (-4.0) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -5.6 (+9.6) | 139.9 (-3.9) | 28% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | ILL 84 – 44 NU |
| Jan 15, 2026 | ILL 79 – 68 NU |
| Jan 26, 2025 | ILL 83 – 74 NU |
| Jan 25, 2024 | NU 96 – 91 ILL |
| Jan 3, 2024 | ILL 96 – 66 NU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NU | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 12-8 |
| Home | 12-5 | 13-4 |
| Away | 2-9 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 83.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.2 | 74.8 |
| Massey | 7.6 (#75) | 21.5 (#6) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.91 (#102) | 2.07 (#49) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.81 (#79) | 3.17 (#50) |
| RPI | 0.559 (#86) | 0.575 (#64) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NU | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 47.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 14.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 55.0% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 33.1% | 38.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 28.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 40.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 76.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 14.7% |
Game Analysis
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