He just grinned and shook my hand, "No" was all he said. "The Weight" - The Band
Big Ten Conference · Welsh-Ryan Arena · December 7, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread ILL -3.5 Home covered
O/U 142.5 Under
Money NU +140 / ILL -165
Model Predictions
Spread Total NU win
Actual NU +4 136 Won
Massey ILL -9.1 (+13.1)
Massey Totals 144.7 (-8.7)
Bradley-Terry 43%
Weighted B-T 41%
Efficiency Plus ML ILL -5.4 (+9.4) 144.8 (-8.8) 45%
Baseline Tuned ML ILL -5.5 (+9.5) 140.0 (-4.0) 32%
Baseline ML ILL -5.6 (+9.6) 139.9 (-3.9) 28%
Baseline Plus ML ILL -6.3 (+10.3) 144.7 (-8.7) 35%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 5, 2026 ILL 8444 NU
Jan 15, 2026 ILL 7968 NU
Jan 26, 2025 ILL 8374 NU
Jan 25, 2024 NU 9691 ILL
Jan 3, 2024 ILL 9666 NU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings NU ILL
Overall 17-16 22-13
Conference 7-13 12-8
Home 12-5 13-4
Away 2-9 5-5
Neutral 3-2 4-4
Last 5 3-2 4-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 72.4 83.6
Avg Pts Against 69.2 74.8
Massey 7.6 (#75) 21.5 (#6)
Bradley-Terry 0.91 (#102) 2.07 (#49)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.81 (#79) 3.17 (#50)
RPI 0.559 (#86) 0.575 (#64)
Shooting & Four Factors NU ILL
FG% 44.9% 45.8%
3PT% 33.3% 35.0%
REB / G 36.1 47.9
OREB / G 11.4 14.3
AST / TO 1.39 1.40
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 49.9% 55.0%
TOV% 15.4% 15.0%
ORB% 33.1% 38.9%
FT Rate 27.4% 28.1%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 48.7% 40.4%
Opp TOV% 20.3% 15.9%
DRB% 73.8% 76.8%
Opp FT Rate 22.3% 14.7%

Game Analysis

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