Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | ILL -380 NU +290 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +9 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -13.6 (-4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.0 (+7.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -12.5 (-3.5) | 149.8 (+7.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -12.1 (-3.1) | 152.4 (+4.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -11.7 (-2.7) | 150.0 (+7.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -12.4 (-3.4) | 150.1 (+6.9) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | ILL 84 – 44 NU |
| Jan 15, 2026 | ILL 79 – 68 NU |
| Dec 7, 2024 | NU 70 – 66 ILL |
| Jan 25, 2024 | NU 96 – 91 ILL |
| Jan 3, 2024 | ILL 96 – 66 NU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | NU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 7-13 |
| Home | 13-4 | 12-5 |
| Away | 5-5 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.6 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 69.2 |
| Massey | 21.5 (#8) | 11.2 (#50) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.66 (#24) | 1.65 (#61) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.64 (#25) | 2.47 (#52) |
| RPI | 0.600 (#35) | 0.571 (#60) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | NU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 44.7 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 35.4% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.6% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.6% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.3% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 76.2% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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