Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | ILL -235 NU +192 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +30 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -13.9 (+16.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.4 (+19.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -10.3 (+19.7) | 140.3 (+21.7) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -10.8 (+19.2) | 143.1 (+18.9) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -11.3 (+18.7) | 140.5 (+21.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -10.3 (+19.7) | 141.2 (+20.8) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | ILL 84 – 44 NU |
| Jan 15, 2026 | ILL 79 – 68 NU |
| Jan 26, 2025 | ILL 83 – 74 NU |
| Dec 7, 2024 | NU 70 – 66 ILL |
| Jan 25, 2024 | NU 96 – 91 ILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | NU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-9 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 12-8 |
| Home | 15-3 | 15-2 |
| Away | 6-5 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 8-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.4 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 69.1 |
| Massey | 15.6 (#11) | 6.3 (#81) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.65 (#21) | 2.19 (#31) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.68 (#19) | 3.34 (#27) |
| RPI | 0.600 (#36) | 0.581 (#53) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | NU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.4% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 46.1 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.7 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 13.7% |
| ORB% | 37.7% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.1% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.6% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.5% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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