Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | NU +145 ILL -188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NU +5 | 187 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -6.2 (+11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.0 (+40.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -2.9 (+7.9) | 146.2 (+40.8) | 44% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -3.5 (+8.5) | 143.2 (+43.8) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -2.5 (+7.5) | 144.2 (+42.8) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -3.3 (+8.3) | 145.1 (+41.9) | 42% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | ILL 84 – 44 NU |
| Jan 15, 2026 | ILL 79 – 68 NU |
| Jan 26, 2025 | ILL 83 – 74 NU |
| Dec 7, 2024 | NU 70 – 66 ILL |
| Jan 3, 2024 | ILL 96 – 66 NU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NU | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 29-9 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 14-6 |
| Home | 15-2 | 15-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 8-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 83.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 73.3 |
| Massey | 7.3 (#77) | 17.2 (#10) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.08 (#37) | 2.35 (#24) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.74 (#30) | 3.09 (#16) |
| RPI | 0.590 (#42) | 0.612 (#24) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NU | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 30.2 | 43.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.77 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 36.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 43.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 13.8% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.0% | 15.7% |
Game Analysis
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