Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | NU +350 ILL -455 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +11 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | ILL -9.4 (-1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.0 (-6.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -9.1 (-1.9) | 143.9 (+3.1) | 19% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -7.7 (-3.3) | 146.1 (+0.9) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -8.5 (-2.5) | 143.0 (+4.0) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -9.8 (-1.2) | 142.8 (+4.2) | 22% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | ILL 84 – 44 NU |
| Jan 26, 2025 | ILL 83 – 74 NU |
| Dec 7, 2024 | NU 70 – 66 ILL |
| Jan 25, 2024 | NU 96 – 91 ILL |
| Jan 3, 2024 | ILL 96 – 66 NU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NU | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-19 | 28-9 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 15-5 |
| Home | 9-8 | 14-3 |
| Away | 3-8 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.1 | 83.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 68.8 |
| Massey | 9.4 (#62) | 22.3 (#8) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.39 (#141) | 3.61 (#14) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.58 (#128) | 4.91 (#13) |
| RPI | 0.508 (#156) | 0.633 (#20) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NU | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 42.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 2.18 | 1.49 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 56.0% |
| TOV% | 12.4% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 39.0% |
| FT Rate | 29.7% | 28.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 45.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 12.4% |
| DRB% | 66.1% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 13.3% |
Game Analysis
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