Betting Lines
| Spread | SF -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | SF -395 LMU +310 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LMU +9 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | SF -8.6 (-17.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.2 (+16.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SF -8.0 (-17.0) | 143.1 (+15.9) | 80% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SF -9.4 (-18.4) | 144.0 (+15.0) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SF -7.8 (-16.8) | 139.8 (+19.2) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SF -7.8 (-16.8) | 141.5 (+17.5) | 77% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 9, 2026 | LMU 84 – 82 SF |
| Feb 9, 2025 | SF 72 – 66 LMU |
| Dec 29, 2024 | SF 70 – 55 LMU |
| Feb 18, 2024 | SF 82 – 59 LMU |
| Jan 19, 2024 | SF 90 – 74 LMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SF | LMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 6-12 |
| Home | 10-6 | 10-8 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.8 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 4.9 (#105) | -0.7 (#177) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.70 (#102) | -0.15 (#187) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.13 (#94) | -0.11 (#176) |
| RPI | 0.529 (#116) | 0.490 (#201) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SF | LMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.6% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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