Betting Lines
| Spread | SF -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | LMU +280 SF -400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SF +23 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | SF -5.2 (-17.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.1 (-0.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SF -6.1 (-16.9) | 142.1 (-1.1) | 24% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SF -5.6 (-17.4) | 140.2 (+0.8) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SF -5.9 (-17.1) | 142.8 (-1.8) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SF -5.5 (-17.5) | 143.8 (-2.8) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | LMU 84 – 75 SF |
| Jan 9, 2026 | LMU 84 – 82 SF |
| Feb 9, 2025 | SF 72 – 66 LMU |
| Dec 29, 2024 | SF 70 – 55 LMU |
| Jan 19, 2024 | SF 90 – 74 LMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LMU | SF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-19 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 11-5 |
| Home | 8-8 | 14-2 |
| Away | 2-7 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 66.8 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#167) | 8.2 (#72) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.64 (#238) | 1.49 (#65) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.69 (#226) | 1.78 (#72) |
| RPI | 0.458 (#260) | 0.555 (#87) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LMU | SF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 48.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 55.1% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.9% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 76.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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