Betting Lines
| Spread | SF -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | LMU +135 SF -155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SF +6 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | SF -4.3 (-1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.3 (+2.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SF -3.3 (-2.7) | 138.5 (-0.5) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SF -1.7 (-4.3) | 136.0 (+2.0) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SF -2.0 (-4.0) | 137.7 (+0.3) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SF -1.8 (-4.2) | 138.2 (-0.2) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | LMU 84 – 75 SF |
| Jan 9, 2026 | LMU 84 – 82 SF |
| Dec 29, 2024 | SF 70 – 55 LMU |
| Feb 18, 2024 | SF 82 – 59 LMU |
| Jan 19, 2024 | SF 90 – 74 LMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LMU | SF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 13-5 |
| Home | 11-6 | 17-2 |
| Away | 3-8 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#144) | 8.6 (#69) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.88 (#101) | 1.88 (#51) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.08 (#97) | 2.21 (#57) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#103) | 0.578 (#50) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LMU | SF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 24.0% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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