Betting Lines
| Spread | SF -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | SF -600 LMU +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SF +16 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | SF -14.4 (+1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.2 (+27.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SF -12.7 (+3.3) | 138.7 (+25.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SF -11.9 (+4.1) | 138.7 (+25.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SF -13.8 (+2.2) | 139.8 (+24.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SF -13.1 (+2.9) | 139.5 (+24.5) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | LMU 84 – 75 SF |
| Jan 9, 2026 | LMU 84 – 82 SF |
| Feb 9, 2025 | SF 72 – 66 LMU |
| Dec 29, 2024 | SF 70 – 55 LMU |
| Feb 18, 2024 | SF 82 – 59 LMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SF | LMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 5-11 |
| Home | 14-2 | 8-8 |
| Away | 6-6 | 2-7 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 71.5 |
| Massey | 10.1 (#49) | -0.5 (#175) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.48 (#69) | -0.57 (#232) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.93 (#69) | -0.74 (#234) |
| RPI | 0.554 (#93) | 0.454 (#251) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SF | LMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.7% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.7% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 34.5% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.0% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 13.7% |
| DRB% | 76.7% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.1% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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