Betting Lines
| Spread | MRSH -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | MRSH -600 USM +440 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRSH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRSH +4 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | MRSH -9.6 (-5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.5 (+6.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRSH -10.0 (-6.0) | 146.8 (+11.2) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRSH -10.2 (-6.2) | 145.5 (+12.5) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRSH -10.4 (-6.4) | 143.0 (+15.0) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRSH -9.9 (-5.9) | 144.3 (+13.7) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2024 | USM 68 – 66 MRSH |
| Jan 27, 2024 | MRSH 83 – 67 USM |
| Jan 13, 2023 | MRSH 89 – 67 USM |
| Feb 22, 2022 | MRSH 74 – 60 USM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRSH | USM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 13-4 | 10-3 |
| Away | 6-8 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.5 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.9 | 74.8 |
| Massey | 1.3 (#144) | -5.2 (#246) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.42 (#125) | -0.64 (#221) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.31 (#137) | -0.92 (#230) |
| RPI | 0.547 (#87) | 0.486 (#206) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRSH | USM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 26.8% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 31.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.0% | 29.3% |
Game Analysis
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