Betting Lines
| Spread | MRSH -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | MRSH -188 USM +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRSH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRSH +16 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | MRSH -3.6 (+12.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.3 (+5.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRSH -3.4 (+12.6) | 145.0 (+5.0) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRSH -1.8 (+14.2) | 141.2 (+8.8) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRSH -1.8 (+14.2) | 141.3 (+8.7) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRSH -1.8 (+14.2) | 144.0 (+6.0) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | MRSH 81 – 77 USM |
| Dec 21, 2024 | USM 68 – 66 MRSH |
| Jan 13, 2023 | MRSH 89 – 67 USM |
| Feb 22, 2022 | MRSH 74 – 60 USM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRSH | USM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 9-9 |
| Home | 8-7 | 11-3 |
| Away | 3-9 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.9 | 72.9 |
| Massey | -3.5 (#232) | -3.4 (#231) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.31 (#203) | 0.30 (#150) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.39 (#206) | -0.02 (#174) |
| RPI | 0.485 (#197) | 0.518 (#139) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRSH | USM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.6% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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