Betting Lines
| Spread | MRSH -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | USM +150 MRSH -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USM +2 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | MRSH -2.8 (+4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.7 (-12.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRSH -2.0 (+4.0) | 143.6 (-9.6) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRSH -1.2 (+3.2) | 142.7 (-8.7) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MRSH -1.0 (+3.0) | 143.9 (-9.9) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRSH -2.0 (+4.0) | 144.1 (-10.1) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | MRSH 81 – 77 USM |
| Jan 27, 2024 | MRSH 83 – 67 USM |
| Jan 13, 2023 | MRSH 89 – 67 USM |
| Feb 22, 2022 | MRSH 74 – 60 USM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USM | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-22 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 12-6 |
| Home | 9-6 | 14-3 |
| Away | 1-13 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.9 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.5 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -8.9 (#307) | -1.9 (#200) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.52 (#301) | -0.52 (#218) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.21 (#303) | -0.78 (#225) |
| RPI | 0.396 (#330) | 0.466 (#242) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USM | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 28.5% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.0% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 27.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 35.9% |
Game Analysis
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