Betting Lines
| Spread | MRSH -8.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRSH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRSH +22 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | MRSH -5.1 (+16.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.2 (+11.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRSH -4.8 (+17.2) | 144.5 (+11.5) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRSH -3.8 (+18.2) | 143.8 (+12.2) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRSH -4.0 (+18.0) | 144.0 (+12.0) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRSH -4.2 (+17.8) | 145.4 (+10.6) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | MRSH 81 – 77 USM |
| Dec 21, 2024 | USM 68 – 66 MRSH |
| Jan 27, 2024 | MRSH 83 – 67 USM |
| Feb 22, 2022 | MRSH 74 – 60 USM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRSH | USM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-8 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 14-4 |
| Home | 15-2 | 15-0 |
| Away | 9-5 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.2 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 67.5 |
| Massey | 8.3 (#64) | 7.2 (#80) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.85 (#96) | 1.65 (#55) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.21 (#91) | 2.02 (#59) |
| RPI | 0.545 (#96) | 0.586 (#45) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRSH | USM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 42.4 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 14.7 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.63 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 36.8% | 33.4% |
| FT Rate | 13.0% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 22.1% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.3% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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